KORNYESZ 25-ben emlitett felmerest reszletekben kozlom. Barkinek
szivesen elkuldjuk a teljes valtozatot e_mail-kent avagy ha nagyon
szukseges hard-copy (korlatozott szamban) szinten elerheto: e_mail
to Mr. Terry Collins at  or to me 
snail mail address: UNEP/Regional Office for North America, 
Two UN Plaza, Room DC2-806, New York, NY 10017 USA

                                * * * 

                              Part 5 of 6

UNEP GLOBAL SURVEY ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES AND PRACTICES OF  
              THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY  
> =================================================================


   E.  Future (Section IV  of the survey)  
  
The questions in this part of the survey closely matched those in 

the initial section on current environmental activities.  There  
was, however, one major difference.  The questions were designed  
to elicit projective, not factual responses.    
  
Many of the questions looked in this section were also analyzed  
based on stage of financial market development and geography. The 

trend throughout this section is that over time there appears to  
be little difference between those respondents who feel the  
environment currently has a great impact on their present  
operations versus those who believe the impact to be only slight. 
 
This view held consistent when other various sub-populations were 

subjected to the same analysis.  In general, each sub-population  
will, over time, increase their focus and work on both core and  
non-core banking activities that relate to the environment.  For  
detailed comparisons based on stage of development and geography  
see pages 5 - 8 of Appendix B.  
  
1.     Focus on environmental issues  
  
The respondents believe that environmental issues will continue  
to play an increasing role in their industry.  The overall level  
of involvement is projected to progressively increase over the  
next 15 years.  The table below presents the responses to a  
question that asked about the likelihood of the institution  
increasing its focus on environmental issues over the next 1, 3,  
5, and 15 years.  Respondents were asked to use a six-point scale 

(6=very likely, 5= likely, 4=somewhat likely, 3=somewhat  
unlikely, 2=unlikely and 1=very unlikely).  
  
Number of years into  
  the future           Average Response      % Responding 6 or 5  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 

1 year                    4.27                      41%  
3 years                   4.68                      53%  
5 years                   4.94                      69%  
15 years                  5.19                      80%  
  
  
2.     Credit risk management  
  
Several specific questions focused on the adoption of  
environmentally-related credit risk management practices over the 

next five years.  The activities listed in this section were  
identical to those asked under Section I of the survey, which  
focused on current environmental activities.  The responses to  
the two sets of questions (current and future) were compared and  
are shown below.  
  
Rating of    Rating of  
current     likelihood  
activities  in 5 years      Activity  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 

4.01           4.86         Environmental Impact Assessments  
3.98           4.82         Environmental Credit Risk Analysis  
                            or Audit   
2.99           3.82         Adding environmental criteria to the  
                            credit review process  
  
3.     Lending/investment strategy  
  
The average response to a four-part question asking about the  
firms likelihood of funding environmentally-related businesses  
during the next fifteen years is shown below.  As noted earlier,  
as the time horizon lengthens, more institutions are likely to  
anticipate pursuing investment and lending opportunities in the  
environmental services industry.  
  
Number of years  
into the future    Average Response     % Responding 6 or 5  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 

1 year                   3.91                   31%  
3 years                  4.31                   44%   
5 years                  4.62                   61%   
15 years                 4.87                   88%  
  
And we see similar projected increases in the adoption of  
specific environmental core banking activities over the next 5  
years as compared with what is being currently pursued.  
  
Rating of    Rating of  
current     likelihood  
activities  in 5 years     Activity  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
 
3.47           4.55        Loan to or invest in firms that focus  

                            on environmental technologies  
2.85           3.99        Targeting of loans/lines of credit for 

                            environmental firms  
2.01           3.00        Joint ventures with Development Banks  
1.76           2.90        Targeting environmentally related      
                            venture capital funds  
  
4.     Educating staff, customers and the general public  
  
Rating of    Rating of  
current     likelihood  
activities  in 5 years      Activity  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 

4.10           4.83         Educating staff about the environment 

2.83           3.66         Educating customers about   
                             the environment  
2.21           3.07         Educating the public about   
                             the environment  
  
5.     Recycling, resource and energy conservation, and  
procurement procedures  
  
Rating of    Rating of  
current     likelihood  
activities  in 5 years      Activity  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 

4.44          5.14          Energy conservation   
4.19          4.87          Recycling   
3.94          4.90          Resource reduction and resource reuse 

3.31          4.43          Adding environmental criteria to all  
                             procurement decisions  
  
6.     Regulatory situation  
  
The majority of responding institutions believe that the  
regulatory climate will grow stricter over the next five years,  
and that compliance will become more difficult.  The overall  
opinion on how regulation is anticipated to change over the next  
five years is indicated below:  
  
  
                               Government    Non-governmental  
Regulatory Change             Requirements     Requirements  
> ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
Will get stricter                67%                68%  
Will not change significantly    29%                26%  
Will get easier                   4%                 5%  
  
  
Whereas 18% of the respondents noted that regulatory compliance  
is now very easy (see Section V.C.3 of this report), 0% believe  
it will be equally as easy in the future.  The overwhelming  
majority of respondents (75%) believe that it will be at least  
somewhat difficult for institutions to fully comply with   
environmental regulations expected to exist in five years.  


                 Gabor Szilagyi  > 
                 United Nations Environment Programme
                 Regional Office for North America
                 TEL (212)963-7781 
                 FAX (212)963-8193

Valaki megirhatna, hogy mi is az a fenekkuszob, amit a Dunaba akarnak betenni (
?), es miert ellenzi ezt a FIDESZ, es miert tetszik ez a tobbieknek?
Koszonettel:

ASZA

P R O J E C T   C O O R D I N A T O R

The  Regional  Environmental Center for  Central  and
Eastern  Europe  (REC) is now accepting  applications
for  the position of Project Coordinator for its  new
project  supporting the development of  environmental
action plans of both at national and municipal  level
in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

The  project focuses on the promotion of the approach
and  methodology of the Environmental Action  Program
(EAP)  developed at the Luzern Ministerial Conference
in  1993.  The  essence of this approach  is  to  (1)
develop   environmental  policies   integrated   with
economic   policies,  (2)  to  support  institutional
development  and  capacity  building  for  government
sector  to  prepare  them  to  address  environmental
problems  effectively, (3) promote  investments  with
high  cost/benefit ratio to remediate and to  prevent
environmental  problems. The  project  supports  both
governments  and  NGOs involved in  the  Luzern-Sofia
process  dealing with EAP at the national level,  and
the   municipalities  defining  their  own  EAPs   in
coordination with other municipalities  of  the  same
region.

The Project Coordinator is responsible for developing
contacts   with   experts  from   different   sectors
(including    government,   businesses    and    non-
governmental organizations) in the field  of  EAP  in
CEE   and   Western  countries,  organize   effective
cooperation  and  experience  sharing  between   them
resulting in quality thematic reports to be published
by REC.

The  ideal candidate will be from Central and Eastern
Europe and will have the following qualifications:
-  experience  in environmental related  projects  in
Central and Eastern Europe,
-  familiarity with Environmental Action Plan related
issues,
-  excellent  planning,  organizational  and  project
management skills,
-  fluency in English and in one Central and  Eastern
European language,
- excellent computer skills (Word for Windows, Excel)

Salary will be based on experience and qualification.
If  you  are interested in this challenging position,
please  send your application including the names  of
two  persons  who are willing to serve as  references
for you, a CV and a cover letter by February 28, 1995
to:

Mr. Mozes Kiss
Regional Environmental Center
Miklos ter 1,
1035. Budapest
Hungary
Fax: (361) 250 3403
E-mail: 

Kedves Gabor!

1.	Magyarorszagon a kivandorlas nem lehet teljes valasz a szuletesi arany
csokkenesere, mivel a) tolunk azert kevesebb a kivandorlas mint Ukrajnabol vagy
Bulgariabol;  b) hozzank jelentos a bearamlas is; pl. a deli 6arokrol; de akar
torokok, kinainak, stb.  Ez kulonosen nem magyarazhatja a szuletesi aranyok
drasztiqs lepottyanasat a Kelet-Nemet videkeken, ahol pedig az egyik legnagyobb
a jelenseg egesz Kozep-Kelet Europaban.

2.	Az 1970 ota, a szocializmus utolso evtizedeiben tortent akar szuletesi arany
csokkengetes, akar halalozasi arany novekedgetes az kismiska volt ahhoz, ami
1989 ota elkezdodott.  Pont errol szol a cikk - hogy itt most mas van; itt most
nagy gaz van.  Azert 1970 es kvazi 1986 kozott a varhato eletkor szepen
kitartoan emelkedett az osszes szocalista orszagban; es az utolso evek
halalozasi aranyanak novekedese csak a ferfiakat erintette, es beloluk is csak
egy korcsoportot.  Ami 1989 ota van, az egyarant kaszal noket-ferfiakat;
fiatalokat es kozepkoruakat.  

3.	A Nyugatnemetek igaz, hogy fogynak (az egyik forrascikk ehhez a jelenseghez
is hasonlitja a mostani Kelet-Europait); de az masert van.  Ott a szuletesi
arany KONSTANSAN alacsonyabb, mint a halalozasi.  Kelet-Europaban a DERIVALTAK
valtozasarol van szo. Valamint, mig Nyugat-Nemeteknel a varhato eletkor meg
most is lassan emelkedik vagy konstans (74.8 ev 1993-ban); keleten ez kezdett
zuhanni.  (amugy azert nem kell olyan nagyon aggodni a Nyugat-Nemetekert: a
#004#nepesseg"csokkenes" az azt jelenti, hogy 1960 ota a nepessegvaltozasuk
1%on belul mozog (az igaz, hogy ott foleg lefele) - egy idosorban abrazolva
inkabb konstansnak tunik.)

4.	A statisztikai modszerek kulonbsegenek felemlitese az egy jo kerdes. 
Termeszetesen, ezt igen fontos barmilyen konkluzio gyors levonasa elott
megvizsgalni, hiszen a tarsadalmi valtozasokkal egyuttal a statisztikai
modszerek is valtozhattak.  Az egyik cikk ezt is elemzi (a National
Interest-beli), es elveti.  Ramutat, hogy a szocialista orszagokbol a kotelezo
nyilvantartas miatt
a vilagon az egyik legpontosabb es megbizhatobb eletkor-statisztikak
szarmaznak.  Es kulonben is, azert itt MINDEN EGYES volt tervgazdasagrol van
szo;
es szinte minden korcsoportrol!  Gabor, szerinted ez meg mindig lehet
statisztikai inkonzekvencia?  Kulonosen, ha meg a kormanyok is
kenytelen-kelletlen hivatalosan is bejelentik.


5.	>G: Egy rosszindulatu megjegyzes, Diana : cikked olvastan "deja vu"
pontosabban "deja lu" >erzesem volt, mintha tavaly egy Time Magazine-ban szinte
pontosan ugyanezeket a >gondolatokat lattam volna ... ;-)


Nem a New York Times-ra gondolsz?  En referaltam is a mondott cikkre; sot; az
dobbentett meg eloszor, az inditott ra, hogy a dolgoknak kicsit jobban
utanajarjak.  (erdekes volt, mert epp a TIPP-en kezdodott el errol valami vita,
mikor egy-ket nap mulva megjelent a NYT-ban egy feloldalas cikk a temarol...) 
Es mint irtam, ez nem onallo kutatasom eredmenye (akkor hulye lennek eloszor a
Kornyeszbe kuldeni), hanem a KOrnyesz es egy itteni hazi feladatom szamara
irtam cikkek alapjan (amiket, ha jol emlekszem, felsoroltam).

DIana

Hatha valakit erdekel ...

Orszagos Foldrajzi Termeszet- es Kornyezetvedelmi Nap az Oktatasert.

1995 marcius 18, szombat.

Reszletes info:

Fovarosi Pedagogiai Intezet
Tanulmanyi csoport
Kiss Janosne
1082 Budapest, Horvath Mihaly ter 8
tel: (36-1) 210-1030/14