A Monsanto egyik magyarorszagi vezetoje azt magyarazta egy gazdasagi
szakfolyoiratban, hogy bar a horizontalis gentranszfer letezese valoban
felveti annak a lehetoseget, hogy a genetikailag modositott novenyekbol
a genek atugralnak mas, nem modositott novenyekre is (adott esetben a
Monsanto gyomirto szerere genmodositassal rezisztensse tett haszonnoveny
es a gyomnoveny kozotti transzfer veszelye merult fel), valoszinu, hogy
ez a transzfer nem fog megtortenni...

...de nem is lesz.

(A Scientific American junius 15-i szamaban megjelent cikkbol)

> The Last Sturgeon
> 
>      Can the economic forces driving the ancient source of
>      caviar to extinction be stopped? It may already be too late.
> 
> A 250 million year-old rite continues this week along the Russian
> rivers feeding into the Caspian Sea: The sturgeon are spawning as they
> have since the time of the dinosaurs.  But this breeding season may be
> one of their last.
> 
> These ancient fish, prized for the unfertilized eggs of the
> females--that luxury product called caviar--are being devastated by
> overfishing, poaching, pollution, and industrial development.  The
> World Wildlife Fund reports that the numbers of adult sturgeon in the
> Caspian plummeted from 142 million in 1978 to a scant 43.5 million in
> 1994. And scientists now fear that these unique and valuable fish may
> vanish from the region within five to 10 years.

Magyarabbul:

Az utolso tokhal

     Vajon megallithatja-e a gazdasagi kenyszer a kaviar osi 
     forrasaul szolgalo halfaj kipusztulasat? Talan mar keso

250 millio eves ritus zajlik ezen a heten a Kaszpi tengerbe vezeto
orosz folyok menten: a tokhalak ivnak, ahogy a dinoszauruszok ota
mindig. De ez a szaporodasi idoszak szamukra mar az utolsok egyike.

Ezt az osi halfajt, amelyet a nostenyek megtermekenyitetlen ikrajaert,
a kaviarert kedvelunk, megtizedelte a tulhalaszas, orvhalaszat, a
szennyezodes es az ipari fejlodes. A WWF felmeresei szerint a felnott
tokhalak szamat a Kaszpi tengerben az 1978 es 1994 kozott a korabbi
142 milliorol lecsokkent 43.5 milliora. Tudosok attol tartanak, hogy
ez az egyedulallo es ertekes halfaj 5-10 even belul eltunik errol a
teruletrol.

Kicsit lejjebb:

> Before 1991, the Soviet Union and Iran--the only two nations then
> bordering the Caspian Sea--regulated sturgeon fishing rigorously,
> ensuring a steady supply of caviar and the survival of the sturgeon in
> the region. In particular, they restricted fishing to the rivers into
> which the sturgeon return to spawn; taking fish on the open sea, where
> they mature, was prohibited. Thus, those that were born, or spawned and
> survived to make it back to the safety of the sea, were likely to
> return again to the rivers.
> 
> But when the Soviet Union collapsed, three new states--Azerbaijan,
> Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan--acquired Caspian shores. And these
> countries have been slow to put similar protective measures in place.
> (Azerbaijan applied to the CITES treaty only in April of this
> year--when the state fishery, Azerbalyg, banned black caviar export
> until they did so.) Increasingly fish have fallen prey to poachers in
> the past seven years.

1991 elott a Szovjetunio es Iran -- a Kaszpi tengerrel hataros ket
orszag -- szigoruan szabalyozta a tok halaszatat, garantalva a kaviar
allando forrasat es a tok tuleleset a terulete. Ezt azzal ertek el,
hogy a halaszatot azokra a folyokra korlatoztak, ahol a tok ivni indul.
A tok nyilt tengeri halaszata tilos volt. Igy azok a tokhalak, amelyek
kikeltek, vagy amelyek a sikeres ivas utan biztonsagosan visszatertek
a tengerbe, a kovetkezo evben valoszinuleg ismet elindultak a folyok
fele.

Azonban a Szovjetunio osszeomlasakor harom uj orszag (Azerbajdzsan,
Kazahsztan es Turkmenisztan) szerezte meg a Kaszpi-tenger partvideket.
Es ezek az orszagok nem voltak eleg gyorsak a halallomany vedelmeben.
(Azerbajdzsan csak iden aprilisban csatlakozott a veszelyeztetett fajok
kereskedelmevel kapcsolatos egyezmenyhez a CITES-hez, miutan az allami
halaszati vallalat az Azerbalig a csatlakozasig leallitotta a fekete
kaviar exportjat). Kozben a hal az utobbi het evben egyre nagyobb
mertekben esett az orvhalaszok zsakmanyaul.

> At the same time, the fishes ability to survive is being threatened by
> increasing levels of pollution. Pollution is not a new problem; Russian
> factories have flushed harmful sewage and industrial waste into the
> Caspian--a closed body of water roughly the size of California--since
> the 1960s. But countless new plants cropping up on the Caspian's
> shores--1,200 or more in Kazakstan alone--have made matters much worse.
> Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, pumps some 250 to 300 million cubic
> meters of sewage into the Caspian annually. And the country is home to
> some of the globe's most polluted cities.

Ezzel parhuzamosan a halak tulelesenek lehetoseget az egyre novekvo
szennyezes is fenyeketi. A szennyezes nem mai problema: a szovjet
uzemek 1960 ota ontjak a kommunalis es ipari szennyvizet a Kalifornia
meretu beltengerbe. A partvideken epult szamtalan uj uzem (csak
Kazahsztanban 1200-nal is tobb) tovabb rontja a helyzetet. Baku,
Azerbajdzsan fovarosa evente 250-300 millio kobmeter tisztitatlan
szennyvizet ereszt a Kaszpi tengerbe. Ez az orszag ad otthont a vilag
legszennyezettebb varosainak.

Na ennyi, nincs idom tovabb forditani.

Hiaba szamoljak ki kozgazdaszok es biologsok, hogy a Fold kepes akar
8-10 milliard embert is eltartani - en ebben nem vagyok olyan biztos.
"Nem kell mindig kaviar" de ez csupan egy tunet: ahogy egyre tobben
vagyunk, egyre kisebb az esely az hosszu tavu eletben maradast biztosito
szabalyok betartasara es betartatasara, mert a szabalyok megszegese ott
es akkor mindig jelentos elonyhoz juttatja a szabalyszegoket...  Igazan
nem vagyok egy fatalista, de valahogy nem latom a tortenet veget...
legalabbis a jo veget...

Udv://elemes

Most jutott eszembe, egy gondolat, egy delutani radiomusor kapcsan.
Konkretan arrol volt szo, hogy Budapest 2. keruletben a gyakorlatilag
megszunt GANZ gyarat (kb 9 hektar) teljes egeszeben zoldterulette kell
alakitani, vagy epitsek meg inkabb a Mammut-2 bevasarlokozpontot, igy
a teruletnek csak harmada maradna parkositott, a tobbi beepulne (kb.
ez a fo nezetkulonbseg a kerulet polgarmesteri szekre palyazo jelolt
es a jelenlegi polgarmester kozott).

Tehat arra gondolok, hogy a kornyezet es termeszet irant fogekony
emberek talan kepesek lehetnek megakadalyozni a hasonlo pusztito
beruhazasokat. Az ilyen beruhazasok ugyanis relative keves ember
szamara nyujtanak hasznot, sokkal tobben erzik ennek karat. Fontos
azonban, hogy ez a velemeny ki is fejezodjon azokon a forumokon,
ahol az emberek velemenyet meghallgatjak -- kulonben a hajunkra
kenhetjuk. Nem elsosorban az aktualis problemara celzok, hogy a
keruleti lakosok menjenek el szavazni, hanem altalaban: ha felre
akarnak minket vezetni, ne hagyjuk. *Tenyleg* a kornyezetvedelem
a legfontosabb, kulonben nagyon hamar kinyulunk mint a ruhes kutya
az arokparton... Es ha ugy lesz, meg is erdemeljuk...

Udv://elemes

200 YEARS SINCE MALTHUS AND WE STILL HAVEN'T PROVED HIM WRONG

This year is the 200th anniversary of a small pamphlet that people are still
arguing about.  In 1798 the Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus said forcefully that
the human population tends to grow to the point where it impoverishes itself
and starves.

Both Marxists and capitalists energetically bash that idea.  Marxists don't
believe people can ever be in excess if the economy is just organized to use
them properly.  Capitalists mock Malthus for not foreseeing the progress that
now allows us to feed six times as many people as there were in 1798.

But, to update a quip by Garrett Hardin, "Malthus has been buried again.  This
is the 200th year in which that redoubtable economist has been interred.  We
may take it as certain that anyone who has to be buried 200 times cannot be
wholly dead."  

A new publication by the Worldwatch Institute is full of facts that show
Malthus to be not dead, not wrong, maybe not right either.  The patterns by
which the human race reproduces itself are changing.  Over another few decades,
we will probably put old Malthus to rest at last.  It's up to us to decide
whether he'll rest triumphant or discredited.

The most striking global change is that population growth is slowing.  The
growth rate peaked in 1964 at 2.2 percent.  In 1998 it is 1.4 percent.  That's
an amazing drop.  The average number of children born to a woman in India has
gone down from 5.3 to 3.6.  In China the average woman bears just 1.8 children,
fewer than the average in the United States.

In 32 countries, including Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Spain,
population growth is at or near zero.  The populations of Germany, Italy,
Russia, Hungary and Ukraine are actually shrinking.  Another 39 countries,
including China and the United States, have average families of fewer than two
children, but will go on growing for another few decades because they have many
young people about to enter their reproductive years.

These slow- or no-growth countries contain 2 billion people, about one-third of
the world population.  They are either rich industrial countries or past or
present communist countries.  What they have in common is not wealth, but
education.

That's one-third of humanity proving Malthus wrong.  Not only did he not
foresee our productive technologies, he didn't foresee our reproductive
technologies, our widespread availability of birth control and our education,
employment, empowerment of women.

But the other two-thirds of humanity is chillingly close to proving Malthus
right.  These are the countries we like to call "developing," where virtually
all population growth is now happening.  Birth rates in most of these places
are dropping too, but slowly.  They are growing by 80 million people a year,
the equivalent of a whole new Mexico every 14 months.  The United Nations
expects them to add another 3.3 billion people over the next 50 years.

The Worldwatch booklet makes that forecast look impossible.  It points out that
the world fish catch per person has been stagnant since 1968, and that many
great fisheries are now in active decline.  Global grain production per person
has been dropping for 14 years -- the world's farmers are constantly more
productive, but they're not keeping up with population growth.

Irrigated agriculture is particularly threatened as aquifers are overpumped and
water tables fall.  If the rising population and declining groundwater trends
continue, Worldwatch calculates, by 2050 there will be only one-fourth as much
fresh water per person as there was in 1950.

A British study estimates that forest harvests around the world are already on
average 25 percent above sustainable rates.
World oil production per person peaked in 1979 and has since declined by 23
percent.  Estimates from many sources predict that total oil production will
start declining by 2010 or 2020 as wells run dry.

If over 3 billion more people are still to come, they will need jobs, but
almost 1 billion of us, one-third of the global work force, are already
underemployed.  The new folks will need housing, but 1.6 billion of us now have
no decent housing.  They will need schools, safe water, sanitation, health
care.  One does not want to think about what will happen if they don't get
them.

Worldwatch does think about that, pointing out some places where Malthus is
tragically right, where in spite of all our global progress, death rates are
rising.  AIDS is a major cause, though AIDS is primarily a symptom of poverty
and poor health care.  Zimbabwe is expected to achieve zero population growth
by 2002 because one-fourth of its adults are HIV-positive.  Other African
nations are moving rapidly in that direction.

About 840 million of us are still chronically hungry, about as many as the
whole world population at the time of Malthus.  Each day 19,000 people die from
malnutrition, most of them children.  Malthus said one thing that was correct
then and has been correct ever since: "The pressure arising from the difficulty
of procuring subsistence is not to be considered as a remote one which will be
felt only when the earth refuses to produce any more, but as one which actually
exists at present over the greatest part of the globe."

We can still prove him wrong.  We know how to do it.  We've already partially
done it.

("Beyond Malthus: Sixteen Dimensions of the Population Problem," by Lester R.
Brown, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil, is available for $5 from Worldwatch
Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington DC 20036-1904, phone
800-555-2028, www.worldwatch.org.)

(Donella H. Meadows is an adjunct professor of environmental studies at
Dartmouth College.)